Baseline scenario includes:
Fence has been active for 20 days so far. Also the increased hunting pressure is been implemented in the fenced area and 15km outside the fenced area.

Scenario i ii iii I II III IV V
S00 Y N Y N N N N N
S01 Y Y Y N N N N N
S02 Y Y Y Y N N N N
S03 Y Y Y N Y N N N
S04 Y Y Y N N Y N N
S05 Y Y Y N N N Y N
S06 Y Y Y N N N N Y

Setting up the workplace

Read in data for various scenarios

Variables from the ‘EC’ folder:

  • cycle: time step of the simulation.
  • Infected_P: Number of infected pig herds.
  • Infected_WB: Number of infected wild Boars.
  • Sim: Iteration of the simulation.



Plot of infected domestic pigs and wild boars over time

Scenario 0: Baseline (fencing, movement restrictions, awareness)

Scenario 01: Scenario 0 + hunting pressure

Scenario 02: Scenario 01 + culling of pig herds in surveillance zone

Scenario 03: Scenario 01 + culling of PH in 15km of positive WB

Scenario 04: Scenario 01 + increased awareness and movement restrictions from 10km to 15 km

Scenario 05: Scenario 01 + contact tracing



Maps of infected areas

Variables from the Agents folder:
- idhex: Id of the hexagonal cell.
- Epidemic: Number of times that there was an epidemic on that polygon.
- introduction_ph: Number of times that an infected pig was introduced to the polygon from other polygon.
- introduction_wb: Number of times the disease was transmitted from wild boars to a pig herd.

Scenario 0: Baseline

Scenario 01: Movement restrictions

Scenario 02: Culling of pigs in protection zones

Scenario 03: Culling of pigs around wild boar positive

Scenario 04: Increased surveillance

Scenario 05: Contact tracing



All scenarios together



Summary plot

## # A tibble: 6 x 2
##   S     `median(I_P)`
##   <chr>         <dbl>
## 1 Sc 0           39.0
## 2 Sc 1           37.0
## 3 Sc 2           29.9
## 4 Sc 3           36.6
## 5 Sc 4           30.5
## 6 Sc 5           36.6
## [1] 0.05081344
## [1] 0.2317381
## [1] 0.06009295
## [1] 0.2182275
## [1] 0.07294262